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Start  Estimating cards
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Estimating the cards of your opponents |
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To estimate the
others cards well you should base on several indicators. Of course, the
estimation can always include some random mistakes, because there is
not any method available, which gives you a guarantee, that your
estimation is perfectly correct. However, this type of estimation can
give you a lot of important information.
The moment you
start the game is the first you can come to some basic conclusion. If
all the players started without rising then you cannot expect strong
cards on the fourth and on the fifth position. The reason is that
players playing by the end of turn would raise, if they had good cards.
The conclusion would be that the player, who opens a new turn, or one
on the second and third position has a strong card. If there is
somebody who had raised the cards at the beginning, you should watch
this person and estimate if it is a good or bad player. If that player
is rather not aggressive, then it is hard to say, what he is going to
do next. If, however, the person is a strong one, and this person has
opened the game, then it means that he raise because he want to
encourage other to get into the game and risk.
However,
if the player on the second position rises in the situation, when the
game has just been opened and the winning pool is rather low, it means
that the cards he is not sure the cards he has. The goal of this
raising strategy is to scare away the other players. If the card of the
player on the second position were in reality important, the player
would have allowed other players to play, so that he could rise with
his cards after they have done it before him. He should use this
strategy also, when he has a very high card. There exists also a small
probability, that the other players drop out the game after series of
rising cards and if they have insufficiently good cards. The player
that will not rise the raising of his neighbour sitting right to him,
not only draw other into the game, but also he does not give away the
information about his own card. Of course, there are situations, when
it is highly recommended to rise. For example, when your contra-partner
raises before you and when some players have already drop off the game.
You should be aware also of the fact that the more raises have been
done and more money invested, the more your opponents are forced to
invest even more and spend their money. That’s a huge chance for you.
It means that the more rises the more correctly the players buy the cards.
The
conclusion is that the more raises, the less interest the good player
has to keep an Ace to another pair. If he had a straight and there is a
possibility to buy one or even two cards in the same colour, he will
buy it, or he will buy even four cards. If he has two pairs he will try
to buy the third card to have a Full.
If a good player knows
that his Full is not enough to win, he will resign and give back the
pair from the Full. Instead, he will try to buy two cards to build the
triangle, so that he can have a four of a kind.
Anyway, the
decision about buying the new cards should be made very careful. It is
necessary to take into account several factors, like your position, the
number of cards your opponents buy and the character of other players.
Very important is the number of cards thrown by the opponents.
You
can a little bit better estimate the chances of your opponents after
purchasing the cards. The number of bought cards and raises tells you
everything.
A good player will know when to pass and not invest
anymore his money. A rather weak player will believe that the other
players want to bluff him, which turns not to be right impression.
If you pay attention to the number of cards, that other players buy, you can come to following conclusions:
1. When your opponent is buying three cards, the easiest combination
will be to choose a pair and the third card that suits the other. Of
course, he can buy cards trying to match them to the Full or four of
kind, but you cannot be sure that it is exactly what he is going to
have. Unfortunately, only later you can really say what your opponent
has been planning. Then the combinations of different purchased cards
seem to be easier to guess.
2. If somebody is buying two cards,
it can mean only three things. First- the person, who bought it, has
three cards, without the Full or four of kind. Secondly, this person
wants to match the card to an Ace, in case he will not collect three
good cards. Thirdly, this person tries to match cards according to the
colour or street or another combination. This player does not have any
chance to win. He plays just for pleasure.
3. The best
combination can be achieved even by purchasing only a single card.
Usually players are keen to change one card instead of three or two
cards. However, the possibility to achieve great combination is as big
as the possibility to play very low cards, for example straight.
Especially in situations when a new card is not up to our expectations,
we cannot make anything to better the own chances. In this condition,
the estimation made can be wrong.
4. If the player does not
buy additional cards, it means usually that he is not looking for any
particular combination, but rather all of them are considered. It can
be that the player does not change his cards for other reasons. For
example, he has a four to kind, but he wants other to believe that he
has only a straight. To do that he does not change his cards and make
other believes what he wants. It can be also possible that a player
does not buy any new card because he does not have any combination the
new card could match. However, he does not want the pool to begin. In
this way, he does not want the other to participate in the possible
winning.
5. A purchasing of four cards gives in the theory
the possibility of achieving of every possible combination. However,
this purchase usually does not include two pairs and the partner who
buys them seems not to be the aggressive type of player.
Sometimes
you can estimate other players based on their cards. If you suppose
that your partner has three, and you threw an Ace and King and bought
an Ace and a King as well, then these cards cannot be higher than a
Lady. However, if you threw an Ace, a King, a Lady, and playing two
nines you buy a Jack, a Ten, and a Nine, then you can expect from your
partner only three eights or lower cards. This presumption is based on
the fact, that our partner could not have one of the Aces, one of the
kings, one of the Ladies, one of the Jacks and one of the Nines,
because we had it in our hands. The opponent has to have all the other
cards to get three from the cards mentioned above. However, it is only
possible when he has three cards from all the lowers than nine. Because
it is not so realistic, the first hypothesis has 25% more probability.
The
same way of thinking can be used also in many other situations. For
example, if you have two royal pairs and eights and with an Ace, and
after throwing this Ace you buy a King then you get the Royal Full. If
in the same time the opponent has a Full as well, then it is very
improbably that he has an Ace-Full.
All these examples have
shown that the number of bought cards and the number of raises are of
great importance to predict the cards of another player. Naturally, the
rules described above do not apply to all possible game situations.
However, in most cases the knowledge of this rule can be very helpful.
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