Most people playing matching poker probably wonder what you can learn about such a trivial thing like matching....
Everything seems to be quite easy in this case- to improve your chances to get a strong combination you change all your cards, or at least most of them. It means that if you already have a pair you should change three cards, by three, you change two cards, and by two pairs, you change one card, and so on.
When in case of two pairs you are supposed to change only one card, the thing goes more complicated, when you have three, or a pair. Especially in case of a single pair, there are many reasons why to change only two cards.
If you have a pair and you decide to change three cards you have 12, 24% probability of matching a three. It means that if you try hundred times to match to three, you will get it in reality only twelve times. If you change, two cards and you have already a pair you will reduce your chances for getting three to 8, 24%. Therefore, it is better to think over, what you really should do. However, below you will find some arguments for changing only two cards.
1. The first and the most important thing is that your partners will think that you got the three from dealing. In this case, most of them will throw after your raise their two pairs or even better cards.
2. If you keep a card, which your opponent needs to get some combination, you will highly reduce his chances for matching. Let analyze it a bit deeper. Let us assume that you get following cards: AAK87. In this case, you will immediately rise. A player after you has following cards: KKJ43. He decides to call. You change only two cards leaving the combination AAK unchanged. The opponent changes three cards, leaving KK unchanged. If you remember what we wrote above, you know that your opponent has 12,24% probability to get a three. However, if in pack there is only one card left, that gives him some chance to get a three, the probability decreases to 6,12%
3. Even if your opponents figure out, what are you going to do, and they know that you are going to raise and change two cards, it does not mean that we cannot win. From time to time, it may happen that you will get a three from a dealer. Statistics show that every twelfth time you will get a three and there is 18, 62 % of probability of getting two pairs.
By changing two cards, you should not forget following information:
a) Raise after changing the cards. If you fake having a three, than you have to rise after changing. Very often, you can observe players, who after changing their two cards are waiting. It is in their case obvious that they have only a pair! Do not try to copy their way of acting.
b) Change of two cards, when you get a three straight away (from the dealer). In many games, you can observe players, who change two cards when they have a pair and only one card, when they have a three. They fake in this way lower combination, than they have in reality. Remember not to do the same mistake! You can play like that only time to time, because otherwise your opponents will very fast unravel your secret strategy.
As you see, it is worth to change no more than three cards, even if your chances for getting a three decrease at about 4 %. In this way you can win much higher pool.